NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTA UALR
Points 76.8 72.6
Total Points   149.5
Points From 2-Pointers 29.2 38.6
Points From 3-Pointers 28.7 18.5
Points From Free Throws 18.9 15.6
Shooting UTA UALR
Field Goals Made 24.2 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 57.3
Field Goal % 42.3% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 29.7 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 48.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.6 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 18.9 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 25.7 21.3
Free Throw % 73.6% 73.1%
Ball Control UTA UALR
Rebounds 36.8 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 10.2
Turnovers 13.0 13.5
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.5
Steals 6.4 5.4
Fouls 17.0 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: TX-Arlington

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTA UALR
Total Possessions 74.1
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 70.7
% of Possessions with UTA UALR
2 Point Attempt 33.8% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 20.4%
Player Fouled 23.7% 22.9%
Turnover 17.6% 18.2%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTA UALR
Shot Blocked 8.0% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 32.7% 29.0%