NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNT MSST
Points 64.6 70.8
Total Points   135.4
Points From 2-Pointers 30.9 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.8 20.3
Points From Free Throws 12.0 14.2
Shooting UNT MSST
Field Goals Made 22.7 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 52.7
Field Goal % 41.1% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 55.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 12.0 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 21.7
Free Throw % 75.1% 65.5%
Ball Control UNT MSST
Rebounds 29.7 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 20.1 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 12.0
Turnovers 11.1 11.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.5
Steals 6.6 7.3
Fouls 15.3 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: North Texas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNT MSST
Total Possessions 66.7
Effective Scoring Chances 65.1 66.8
% of Possessions with UNT MSST
2 Point Attempt 41.3% 41.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 24.8%
Player Fouled 19.6% 23.0%
Turnover 16.7% 17.8%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNT MSST
Shot Blocked 6.8% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 37.3%