NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNT ARK
Points 69.9 71.5
Total Points   141.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.4 35.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 16.0
Points From Free Throws 16.8 20.3
Shooting UNT ARK
Field Goals Made 23.1 22.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 50.5
Field Goal % 39.6% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 41.5% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 16.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 16.8 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 26.5
Free Throw % 75.1% 76.5%
Ball Control UNT ARK
Rebounds 34.0 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 8.0
Turnovers 9.8 11.4
Blocked Shots 2.5 5.9
Steals 6.2 5.7
Fouls 18.6 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNT ARK
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 66.8
% of Possessions with UNT ARK
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 20.2%
Player Fouled 22.3% 26.5%
Turnover 14.0% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNT ARK
Shot Blocked 11.7% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 25.8%