NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAVY L-MD
Points 68.3 64.6
Total Points   132.9
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 19.4
Points From Free Throws 14.9 11.7
Shooting NAVY L-MD
Field Goals Made 24.0 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 51.2
Field Goal % 44.4% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 31.5
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.9 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 14.9 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 18.2
Free Throw % 71.0% 64.1%
Ball Control NAVY L-MD
Rebounds 31.1 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 9.7
Turnovers 8.4 12.8
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.4
Steals 5.9 4.2
Fouls 15.9 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Navy

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAVY L-MD
Total Possessions 66.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.9 63.1
% of Possessions with NAVY L-MD
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 25.5%
Player Fouled 24.1% 24.0%
Turnover 12.6% 19.3%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAVY L-MD
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 30.6%