NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAVY GMU
Points 57.4 74.4
Total Points   131.8
Points From 2-Pointers 27.0 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 19.3
Points From Free Throws 13.3 16.8
Shooting NAVY GMU
Field Goals Made 19.2 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 48.6
Field Goal % 34.2% 52.7%
2 Pointers Made 13.5 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 30.1
2 Point Shooting % 36.9% 63.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 29.2% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 13.3 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 22.6
Free Throw % 71.0% 74.1%
Ball Control NAVY GMU
Rebounds 29.1 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 17.4 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 9.0
Turnovers 9.3 11.3
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.3
Steals 5.4 4.0
Fouls 17.7 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Navy

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAVY GMU
Total Possessions 65.1
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 62.8
% of Possessions with NAVY GMU
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 40.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 24.6%
Player Fouled 23.7% 27.3%
Turnover 14.3% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAVY GMU
Shot Blocked 8.9% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 34.2%