NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAVY MD
Points 54.7 75.1
Total Points   129.8
Points From 2-Pointers 28.4 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 12.4 17.4
Points From Free Throws 13.8 19.4
Shooting NAVY MD
Field Goals Made 18.4 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 50.7
Field Goal % 32.8% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made 14.2 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.1 31.6
2 Point Shooting % 35.5% 60.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.1 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 26.1% 30.5%
Free Throws Made 13.8 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 26.5
Free Throw % 71.0% 73.1%
Ball Control NAVY MD
Rebounds 30.1 39.8
Rebounds - Defensive 19.1 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 10.9
Turnovers 10.8 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.1 6.3
Steals 4.6 4.5
Fouls 19.0 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAVY MD
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 67.5
% of Possessions with NAVY MD
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 19.8% 24.2%
Player Fouled 23.7% 28.4%
Turnover 16.1% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAVY MD
Shot Blocked 12.6% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 36.4%