NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MASS SLU
Points 82.1 74.1
Total Points   156.2
Points From 2-Pointers 41.6 33.9
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 22.2
Points From Free Throws 16.8 18.1
Shooting MASS SLU
Field Goals Made 28.7 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 54.1
Field Goal % 47.8% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 57.3% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.7 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 16.8 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 24.1
Free Throw % 68.2% 75.1%
Ball Control MASS SLU
Rebounds 36.9 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 8.9
Turnovers 8.4 11.3
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.4
Steals 6.7 5.2
Fouls 17.1 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MASS SLU
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 75.3 68.7
% of Possessions with MASS SLU
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 41.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 25.2%
Player Fouled 23.2% 24.0%
Turnover 11.9% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MASS SLU
Shot Blocked 4.5% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 35.3% 26.9%