NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MASS USF
Points 72.6 72.4
Total Points   145.0
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 30.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 24.2
Points From Free Throws 15.3 17.8
Shooting MASS USF
Field Goals Made 25.4 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 55.1
Field Goal % 43.2% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 15.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 32.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 15.3 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 24.6
Free Throw % 68.2% 72.6%
Ball Control MASS USF
Rebounds 39.5 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 9.6
Turnovers 10.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.7
Steals 5.8 6.2
Fouls 17.9 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: U Mass

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MASS USF
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 70.2
% of Possessions with MASS USF
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.3% 28.0%
Player Fouled 22.0% 25.3%
Turnover 15.3% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MASS USF
Shot Blocked 4.9% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 35.8% 26.8%