NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MASS GMU
Points 68.4 69.0
Total Points   137.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.3 33.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 18.8
Points From Free Throws 14.1 17.0
Shooting MASS GMU
Field Goals Made 23.7 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 51.7
Field Goal % 41.2% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 14.1 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 23.0
Free Throw % 68.2% 74.1%
Ball Control MASS GMU
Rebounds 35.1 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 10.0
Turnovers 9.7 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.5
Steals 6.7 5.1
Fouls 17.1 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Mason

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MASS GMU
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 66.0
% of Possessions with MASS GMU
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 24.1%
Player Fouled 22.9% 25.4%
Turnover 14.4% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MASS GMU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 34.5% 31.2%