NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAT MER
Points 77.1 71.5
Total Points   148.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 27.7 23.2
Points From Free Throws 15.6 10.6
Shooting CHAT MER
Field Goals Made 26.1 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 63.1
Field Goal % 46.9% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 29.9 42.3
2 Point Shooting % 56.4% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 25.8 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 15.6 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 15.7
Free Throw % 75.3% 67.9%
Ball Control CHAT MER
Rebounds 37.8 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 10.8
Turnovers 10.7 8.0
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.2
Steals 5.1 6.2
Fouls 12.5 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Chattanooga

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAT MER
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 72.6
% of Possessions with CHAT MER
2 Point Attempt 37.2% 51.7%
3 Point Attempt 32.0% 25.5%
Player Fouled 22.4% 17.9%
Turnover 15.3% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAT MER
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 27.5%