NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAT SAM
Points 77.6 84.1
Total Points   161.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.1 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 31.6 35.3
Points From Free Throws 16.0 14.7
Shooting CHAT SAM
Field Goals Made 25.6 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.7 62.4
Field Goal % 45.1% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.0 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 26.6 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.6% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 10.5 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 30.1 29.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 40.4%
Free Throws Made 16.0 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 20.9
Free Throw % 75.3% 70.7%
Ball Control CHAT SAM
Rebounds 37.2 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 9.6
Turnovers 14.2 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.4
Steals 5.9 8.5
Fouls 16.7 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAT SAM
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 74.8
% of Possessions with CHAT SAM
2 Point Attempt 31.1% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 35.1% 34.2%
Player Fouled 21.5% 22.5%
Turnover 19.1% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 11.5% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAT SAM
Shot Blocked 5.6% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 29.3% 26.1%