NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAT CIT
Points 79.4 69.7
Total Points   149.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 35.3
Points From 3-Pointers 33.8 22.0
Points From Free Throws 10.3 12.4
Shooting CHAT CIT
Field Goals Made 28.9 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 58.9
Field Goal % 50.0% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 27.8 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 63.6% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 30.1 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 10.3 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 13.7 17.4
Free Throw % 75.3% 71.4%
Ball Control CHAT CIT
Rebounds 35.2 31.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 8.8
Turnovers 10.3 8.9
Blocked Shots 4.2 2.2
Steals 5.7 5.3
Fouls 14.4 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAT CIT
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 68.9
% of Possessions with CHAT CIT
2 Point Attempt 35.8% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 38.8% 27.6%
Player Fouled 17.9% 20.8%
Turnover 14.9% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAT CIT
Shot Blocked 3.9% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 24.1%