NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAT UNCA
Points 77.6 75.6
Total Points   153.2
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 31.8
Points From 3-Pointers 32.3 28.3
Points From Free Throws 13.8 15.6
Shooting CHAT UNCA
Field Goals Made 26.5 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 59.5
Field Goal % 44.7% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 29.2 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 10.8 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 30.1 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 13.8 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 20.8
Free Throw % 75.3% 75.0%
Ball Control CHAT UNCA
Rebounds 38.2 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.1 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.8
Turnovers 10.9 8.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.6
Steals 5.3 5.6
Fouls 16.5 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Asheville

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAT UNCA
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 71.7
% of Possessions with CHAT UNCA
2 Point Attempt 35.2% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 36.3% 30.8%
Player Fouled 18.9% 23.1%
Turnover 15.3% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAT UNCA
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 23.8%