NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAT VMI
Points 87.7 65.9
Total Points   153.6
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 33.6
Points From 3-Pointers 34.0 21.7
Points From Free Throws 14.7 10.6
Shooting CHAT VMI
Field Goals Made 30.9 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 62.4 63.5
Field Goal % 49.4% 37.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 60.9% 42.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 30.4 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 14.7 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 15.0
Free Throw % 75.3% 70.4%
Ball Control CHAT VMI
Rebounds 42.7 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 33.1 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 8.6
Turnovers 10.3 11.2
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.1
Steals 7.4 5.4
Fouls 13.5 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: VMI

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAT VMI
Total Possessions 75.2
Effective Scoring Chances 74.6 72.6
% of Possessions with CHAT VMI
2 Point Attempt 37.4% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 35.4% 28.0%
Player Fouled 18.8% 17.9%
Turnover 13.7% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAT VMI
Shot Blocked 3.3% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 20.6%