NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAT LMU
Points 77.1 73.1
Total Points   150.3
Points From 2-Pointers 36.2 33.2
Points From 3-Pointers 29.0 28.4
Points From Free Throws 11.9 11.5
Shooting CHAT LMU
Field Goals Made 27.8 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 61.8
Field Goal % 46.9% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 26.5 26.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 11.9 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 15.6
Free Throw % 75.3% 73.7%
Ball Control CHAT LMU
Rebounds 35.3 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 10.8
Turnovers 7.4 7.4
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.7
Steals 4.3 3.4
Fouls 13.1 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Chattanooga

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAT LMU
Total Possessions 67.6
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 71.1
% of Possessions with CHAT LMU
2 Point Attempt 42.5% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 34.4% 32.7%
Player Fouled 19.2% 19.3%
Turnover 10.9% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAT LMU
Shot Blocked 4.5% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 28.8%