NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAT UNCG
Points 74.9 76.8
Total Points   151.7
Points From 2-Pointers 25.0 27.8
Points From 3-Pointers 35.2 38.2
Points From Free Throws 14.7 10.9
Shooting CHAT UNCG
Field Goals Made 24.2 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 62.2
Field Goal % 44.5% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 12.5 13.9
2 Pointers Attempted 23.1 30.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 45.2%
3 Pointers Made 11.7 12.7
3 Pointers Attempted 31.3 31.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 40.4%
Free Throws Made 14.7 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 14.9
Free Throw % 75.3% 72.8%
Ball Control CHAT UNCG
Rebounds 35.8 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 10.8
Turnovers 11.1 8.1
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.5
Steals 4.9 7.0
Fouls 13.8 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Grnsboro

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAT UNCG
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.6 71.6
% of Possessions with CHAT UNCG
2 Point Attempt 29.4% 38.1%
3 Point Attempt 39.8% 39.0%
Player Fouled 21.5% 20.0%
Turnover 16.1% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAT UNCG
Shot Blocked 4.1% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 28.6%