NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LEH HC
Points 75.0 68.4
Total Points   143.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 25.2 22.1
Points From Free Throws 14.0 9.5
Shooting LEH HC
Field Goals Made 26.3 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 55.5
Field Goal % 46.1% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.0 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 14.0 9.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 14.3
Free Throw % 72.8% 66.3%
Ball Control LEH HC
Rebounds 33.1 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.4 5.7
Turnovers 7.5 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.6
Steals 6.5 3.7
Fouls 12.9 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Holy Cross

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LEH HC
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 64.2
% of Possessions with LEH HC
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 26.0%
Player Fouled 22.3% 18.7%
Turnover 10.9% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken LEH HC
Shot Blocked 6.6% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 19.1% 17.7%