NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM MORG
Points 80.2 66.4
Total Points   146.7
Points From 2-Pointers 45.5 42.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.2 11.0
Points From Free Throws 13.6 13.1
Shooting MSM MORG
Field Goals Made 29.8 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 60.6
Field Goal % 49.9% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 22.7 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.4 46.7
2 Point Shooting % 56.3% 45.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 3.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 13.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 26.4%
Free Throws Made 13.6 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 17.4
Free Throw % 71.9% 75.2%
Ball Control MSM MORG
Rebounds 39.9 30.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.5 21.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 9.2
Turnovers 13.1 12.1
Blocked Shots 4.7 2.8
Steals 6.8 7.2
Fouls 12.6 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM MORG
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 70.9
% of Possessions with MSM MORG
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 55.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 16.4%
Player Fouled 20.0% 17.1%
Turnover 17.7% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM MORG
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 34.6% 24.5%