NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM CCSU
Points 70.1 67.8
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 19.9
Points From Free Throws 9.6 12.8
Shooting MSM CCSU
Field Goals Made 26.8 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 57.6
Field Goal % 45.3% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.7% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 9.6 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 13.3 18.0
Free Throw % 71.9% 71.4%
Ball Control MSM CCSU
Rebounds 37.7 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 7.9
Turnovers 12.4 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.8
Steals 5.9 8.5
Fouls 13.0 11.2

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM CCSU
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 68.1
% of Possessions with MSM CCSU
2 Point Attempt 49.0% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.6% 25.1%
Player Fouled 15.9% 18.5%
Turnover 17.7% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 12.1% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM CCSU
Shot Blocked 6.8% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.1% 21.8%