NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM SCU
Points 68.1 77.5
Total Points   145.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 40.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 23.6
Points From Free Throws 11.8 13.1
Shooting MSM SCU
Field Goals Made 25.1 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 60.3
Field Goal % 42.1% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 11.8 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 18.9
Free Throw % 71.9% 69.6%
Ball Control MSM SCU
Rebounds 32.4 39.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 28.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 11.6
Turnovers 11.0 11.2
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.7
Steals 6.0 5.9
Fouls 14.7 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM SCU
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 72.5
% of Possessions with MSM SCU
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 26.5%
Player Fouled 19.4% 20.3%
Turnover 15.3% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM SCU
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 32.7%