NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring APP CCU
Points 83.6 64.5
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 44.9 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 25.5 17.3
Points From Free Throws 13.2 9.6
Shooting APP CCU
Field Goals Made 31.0 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 66.3 66.6
Field Goal % 46.7% 36.9%
2 Pointers Made 22.5 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 41.0 47.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 39.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 25.3 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 13.2 9.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 13.8
Free Throw % 69.5% 69.4%
Ball Control APP CCU
Rebounds 44.0 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 33.1 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 10.3
Turnovers 7.5 10.7
Blocked Shots 6.6 1.9
Steals 6.9 5.1
Fouls 11.3 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Coastal Car

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats APP CCU
Total Possessions 74.4
Effective Scoring Chances 77.9 74.1
% of Possessions with APP CCU
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 54.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 21.4%
Player Fouled 18.2% 15.2%
Turnover 10.0% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken APP CCU
Shot Blocked 3.0% 10.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 23.8%