NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM L-MD
Points 75.2 62.1
Total Points   137.3
Points From 2-Pointers 44.0 31.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 20.7
Points From Free Throws 10.8 10.3
Shooting MSM L-MD
Field Goals Made 28.8 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 56.6
Field Goal % 52.0% 39.7%
2 Pointers Made 22.0 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 59.7% 43.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 10.8 10.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 16.0
Free Throw % 71.9% 64.1%
Ball Control MSM L-MD
Rebounds 34.7 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 9.4
Turnovers 11.1 12.0
Blocked Shots 4.3 1.6
Steals 6.5 7.5
Fouls 13.3 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM L-MD
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.0 66.4
% of Possessions with MSM L-MD
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 26.0%
Player Fouled 18.8% 19.2%
Turnover 16.1% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM L-MD
Shot Blocked 2.9% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 25.5%