NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring APP USA
Points 83.5 66.3
Total Points   149.8
Points From 2-Pointers 51.8 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 21.3
Points From Free Throws 13.1 9.5
Shooting APP USA
Field Goals Made 32.1 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 62.8 65.9
Field Goal % 51.2% 37.7%
2 Pointers Made 25.9 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 43.6 45.3
2 Point Shooting % 59.5% 39.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 13.1 9.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 12.7
Free Throw % 69.5% 74.7%
Ball Control APP USA
Rebounds 44.7 31.0
Rebounds - Defensive 34.4 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 7.3
Turnovers 9.5 9.2
Blocked Shots 7.3 2.0
Steals 5.5 6.0
Fouls 11.1 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: App State

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats APP USA
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.6 71.9
% of Possessions with APP USA
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 54.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 24.6%
Player Fouled 18.8% 15.0%
Turnover 12.9% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken APP USA
Shot Blocked 3.1% 11.7%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 17.4%