NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM NAVY
Points 73.4 64.2
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 42.2 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 16.8
Points From Free Throws 11.5 14.2
Shooting MSM NAVY
Field Goals Made 27.7 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 59.5
Field Goal % 51.1% 37.4%
2 Pointers Made 21.1 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 41.0
2 Point Shooting % 59.9% 40.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 11.5 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 20.0
Free Throw % 71.9% 71.0%
Ball Control MSM NAVY
Rebounds 37.5 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 19.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 11.6
Turnovers 13.4 9.5
Blocked Shots 5.2 1.9
Steals 4.4 7.2
Fouls 14.7 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM NAVY
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 64.8 71.2
% of Possessions with MSM NAVY
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 22.4%
Player Fouled 20.7% 21.2%
Turnover 19.5% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM NAVY
Shot Blocked 3.4% 9.6%
Offensive Rebound 31.5% 29.0%