NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM SFPA
Points 76.4 62.6
Total Points   139.0
Points From 2-Pointers 43.3 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 19.5
Points From Free Throws 12.2 10.7
Shooting MSM SFPA
Field Goals Made 28.6 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 57.3
Field Goal % 50.4% 39.7%
2 Pointers Made 21.6 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 57.4% 42.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 12.2 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 17.8
Free Throw % 71.9% 60.1%
Ball Control MSM SFPA
Rebounds 38.0 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 20.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 10.4
Turnovers 12.1 11.8
Blocked Shots 5.1 3.3
Steals 6.0 6.9
Fouls 13.2 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM SFPA
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 67.9
% of Possessions with MSM SFPA
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.6% 23.5%
Player Fouled 20.4% 19.1%
Turnover 17.4% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM SFPA
Shot Blocked 5.9% 9.2%
Offensive Rebound 33.2% 27.1%