NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM WAG
Points 68.7 61.4
Total Points   130.1
Points From 2-Pointers 39.8 31.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 20.5
Points From Free Throws 9.6 9.8
Shooting MSM WAG
Field Goals Made 26.3 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 59.4
Field Goal % 46.6% 37.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 55.6% 40.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 9.6 9.8
Free Throws Attempted 13.4 14.2
Free Throw % 71.9% 69.5%
Ball Control MSM WAG
Rebounds 39.2 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.8 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.3
Turnovers 11.2 8.5
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.2
Steals 4.0 6.7
Fouls 11.4 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM WAG
Total Possessions 67.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 67.8
% of Possessions with MSM WAG
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 48.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 27.5%
Player Fouled 18.5% 17.0%
Turnover 16.6% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM WAG
Shot Blocked 3.8% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 23.7%