NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM MD
Points 59.5 72.0
Total Points   131.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 36.2
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 18.7
Points From Free Throws 9.9 17.0
Shooting MSM MD
Field Goals Made 22.2 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 56.6
Field Goal % 40.0% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 44.4% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 17.0 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 9.9 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 13.8 23.3
Free Throw % 71.9% 73.1%
Ball Control MSM MD
Rebounds 33.6 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 10.8
Turnovers 14.4 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.6 4.2
Steals 5.0 8.0
Fouls 15.9 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM MD
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 64.2 70.8
% of Possessions with MSM MD
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 24.8%
Player Fouled 18.5% 22.8%
Turnover 20.6% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 11.5% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM MD
Shot Blocked 7.6% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 30.3%