NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM MW
Points 65.5 65.2
Total Points   130.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 15.6 21.9
Points From Free Throws 10.6 12.6
Shooting MSM MW
Field Goals Made 24.8 22.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 54.9
Field Goal % 45.0% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 49.7% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 15.7 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 10.6 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.8 16.9
Free Throw % 71.9% 74.8%
Ball Control MSM MW
Rebounds 40.4 26.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 20.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 5.7
Turnovers 17.0 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.1
Steals 6.3 11.5
Fouls 14.0 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM MW
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 64.7
% of Possessions with MSM MW
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 18.7% 29.2%
Player Fouled 17.9% 19.7%
Turnover 24.0% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 16.2% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM MW
Shot Blocked 5.8% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 36.4% 16.7%