NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSM VILL
Points 62.4 75.0
Total Points   137.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 32.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 29.6
Points From Free Throws 7.5 13.3
Shooting MSM VILL
Field Goals Made 23.7 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 57.4
Field Goal % 41.3% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 30.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 27.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 7.5 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 10.4 16.7
Free Throw % 71.9% 79.7%
Ball Control MSM VILL
Rebounds 33.3 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 7.1
Turnovers 12.0 8.9
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.6
Steals 5.2 7.3
Fouls 12.8 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSM VILL
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 64.1 67.0
% of Possessions with MSM VILL
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 38.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 35.5%
Player Fouled 16.7% 18.6%
Turnover 17.4% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSM VILL
Shot Blocked 4.6% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 21.3%