NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring XAV CIN
Points 69.5 71.0
Total Points   140.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 43.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 19.6
Points From Free Throws 12.0 8.3
Shooting XAV CIN
Field Goals Made 24.9 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.3 60.8
Field Goal % 45.2% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 53.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 12.0 8.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 12.8
Free Throw % 78.7% 64.5%
Ball Control XAV CIN
Rebounds 32.6 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 8.9
Turnovers 11.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.6
Steals 5.5 6.3
Fouls 11.8 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats XAV CIN
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 63.9 68.9
% of Possessions with XAV CIN
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 50.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 26.4%
Player Fouled 19.7% 17.1%
Turnover 16.8% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken XAV CIN
Shot Blocked 7.7% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 25.3%