NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring XAV CIN
Points 70.9 78.2
Total Points   149.0
Points From 2-Pointers 31.7 39.6
Points From 3-Pointers 27.3 26.2
Points From Free Throws 12.0 12.3
Shooting XAV CIN
Field Goals Made 24.9 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 63.1 62.0
Field Goal % 39.5% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.3% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 24.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 12.0 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 17.8
Free Throw % 75.4% 69.2%
Ball Control XAV CIN
Rebounds 34.6 41.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 31.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 10.2
Turnovers 8.9 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.3
Steals 5.0 4.4
Fouls 14.1 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats XAV CIN
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 73.2
% of Possessions with XAV CIN
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 33.2% 29.0%
Player Fouled 17.5% 19.4%
Turnover 12.2% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken XAV CIN
Shot Blocked 7.0% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 20.8% 28.0%