NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring XAV OKST
Points 78.3 73.5
Total Points   151.7
Points From 2-Pointers 45.2 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 21.4
Points From Free Throws 14.0 13.4
Shooting XAV OKST
Field Goals Made 29.0 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.1 58.8
Field Goal % 47.4% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 22.6 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 43.1 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.9 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 14.0 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 18.8
Free Throw % 75.8% 71.2%
Ball Control XAV OKST
Rebounds 36.4 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 8.7
Turnovers 10.2 11.0
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.6
Steals 7.4 5.6
Fouls 14.7 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Oklahoma St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats XAV OKST
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.2 70.1
% of Possessions with XAV OKST
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 27.2%
Player Fouled 21.1% 20.3%
Turnover 14.1% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken XAV OKST
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 24.7%