NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring XAV PROV
Points 70.0 74.8
Total Points   144.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 22.8
Points From Free Throws 15.0 14.3
Shooting XAV PROV
Field Goals Made 24.4 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 58.8
Field Goal % 39.8% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 43.6 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 41.7% 54.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 24.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 15.0 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 19.1
Free Throw % 75.8% 74.5%
Ball Control XAV PROV
Rebounds 36.6 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 8.6
Turnovers 10.4 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 5.4
Steals 6.6 5.6
Fouls 15.8 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Providence

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats XAV PROV
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 70.6
% of Possessions with XAV PROV
2 Point Attempt 51.1% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.7% 29.1%
Player Fouled 21.1% 21.7%
Turnover 14.3% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken XAV PROV
Shot Blocked 9.2% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 24.7%