NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring XAV MARQ
Points 72.4 82.6
Total Points   155.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 46.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 24.9
Points From Free Throws 13.6 11.2
Shooting XAV MARQ
Field Goals Made 25.6 31.6
Field Goals Attempted 61.1 62.5
Field Goal % 41.9% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 23.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 58.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 13.6 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 16.2
Free Throw % 75.8% 69.1%
Ball Control XAV MARQ
Rebounds 37.1 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 8.3
Turnovers 12.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.0
Steals 5.6 7.2
Fouls 13.7 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats XAV MARQ
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.2 72.2
% of Possessions with XAV MARQ
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 27.7%
Player Fouled 18.8% 18.7%
Turnover 17.3% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken XAV MARQ
Shot Blocked 8.1% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 31.2% 24.5%