NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring XAV CONN
Points 63.0 84.3
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 46.7
Points From 3-Pointers 15.1 22.8
Points From Free Throws 15.7 14.7
Shooting XAV CONN
Field Goals Made 21.2 31.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 61.0
Field Goal % 35.4% 50.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 23.3
2 Pointers Attempted 43.2 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 37.4% 59.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 16.6 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 15.7 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 19.6
Free Throw % 75.8% 75.1%
Ball Control XAV CONN
Rebounds 31.9 41.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 30.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 10.9
Turnovers 9.5 8.3
Blocked Shots 2.6 7.3
Steals 4.9 5.2
Fouls 14.9 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats XAV CONN
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.0 73.1
% of Possessions with XAV CONN
2 Point Attempt 51.8% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 19.9% 26.8%
Player Fouled 22.1% 21.1%
Turnover 13.5% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken XAV CONN
Shot Blocked 12.0% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 33.3%