NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring XAV TEX
Points 71.4 79.1
Total Points   150.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 47.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 18.7
Points From Free Throws 16.5 13.3
Shooting XAV TEX
Field Goals Made 24.5 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 61.9
Field Goal % 41.8% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 23.6
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 43.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.4% 54.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.9 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 16.5 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 17.3
Free Throw % 75.8% 76.5%
Ball Control XAV TEX
Rebounds 35.0 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 9.3
Turnovers 11.5 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.1 5.6
Steals 5.4 6.2
Fouls 14.3 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Texas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats XAV TEX
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 72.4
% of Possessions with XAV TEX
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 52.4%
3 Point Attempt 20.0% 22.2%
Player Fouled 22.5% 19.7%
Turnover 15.8% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken XAV TEX
Shot Blocked 9.2% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 27.1%