NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring XAV SJU
Points 73.3 81.5
Total Points   154.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 48.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 18.5
Points From Free Throws 18.0 14.6
Shooting XAV SJU
Field Goals Made 24.4 30.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 64.9
Field Goal % 40.6% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 24.2
2 Pointers Attempted 42.5 46.0
2 Point Shooting % 42.4% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 18.0 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 19.6
Free Throw % 75.8% 74.2%
Ball Control XAV SJU
Rebounds 35.5 40.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 13.2
Turnovers 11.3 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.4 7.7
Steals 6.0 5.8
Fouls 14.3 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats XAV SJU
Total Possessions 73.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 77.4
% of Possessions with XAV SJU
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 52.5%
3 Point Attempt 20.2% 21.6%
Player Fouled 23.5% 19.5%
Turnover 15.4% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken XAV SJU
Shot Blocked 12.0% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 29.8% 35.3%