NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP UCD
Points 76.7 73.8
Total Points   150.6
Points From 2-Pointers 29.9 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 33.1 21.0
Points From Free Throws 13.8 15.9
Shooting CP UCD
Field Goals Made 26.0 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 58.4
Field Goal % 45.0% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 29.5 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.0 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 28.2 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 13.8 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 21.2
Free Throw % 76.6% 75.3%
Ball Control CP UCD
Rebounds 35.1 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 11.0
Turnovers 16.0 13.9
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.4
Steals 7.3 8.8
Fouls 16.6 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP UCD
Total Possessions 75.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 72.5
% of Possessions with CP UCD
2 Point Attempt 33.9% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 24.3%
Player Fouled 20.2% 22.0%
Turnover 21.2% 18.5%
Opponent Steal 11.7% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP UCD
Shot Blocked 5.8% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 30.6%