NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SMU DAY
Points 69.3 75.7
Total Points   144.9
Points From 2-Pointers 38.2 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 28.1
Points From Free Throws 9.0 14.8
Shooting SMU DAY
Field Goals Made 26.5 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 65.0 54.3
Field Goal % 40.7% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 41.2 30.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 40.1%
Free Throws Made 9.0 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 13.2 19.8
Free Throw % 68.6% 74.7%
Ball Control SMU DAY
Rebounds 36.1 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 13.3 8.2
Turnovers 8.6 10.5
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.7
Steals 6.6 5.1
Fouls 15.1 10.8

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SMU DAY
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.8 65.8
% of Possessions with SMU DAY
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 29.9%
Player Fouled 15.8% 22.1%
Turnover 12.6% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SMU DAY
Shot Blocked 8.9% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 33.2% 26.4%