NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP UCSB
Points 64.9 72.9
Total Points   137.7
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 40.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 13.2
Points From Free Throws 12.2 19.1
Shooting CP UCSB
Field Goals Made 23.2 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.7 51.0
Field Goal % 41.0% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 4.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 12.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 12.2 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 25.4
Free Throw % 70.9% 75.0%
Ball Control CP UCSB
Rebounds 28.6 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.3 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 8.6
Turnovers 9.7 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.6
Steals 5.3 5.0
Fouls 17.2 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP UCSB
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 66.5
% of Possessions with CP UCSB
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 16.2%
Player Fouled 22.2% 24.8%
Turnover 14.0% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP UCSB
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.1% 28.7%