NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP UCRV
Points 66.2 72.4
Total Points   138.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 20.7
Points From Free Throws 12.5 15.7
Shooting CP UCRV
Field Goals Made 23.8 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 59.7
Field Goal % 44.3% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 12.5 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 22.1
Free Throw % 70.9% 71.1%
Ball Control CP UCRV
Rebounds 31.7 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.5 13.0
Turnovers 10.6 8.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 1.3
Steals 3.4 5.3
Fouls 16.1 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP UCRV
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 73.3
% of Possessions with CP UCRV
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.3% 25.1%
Player Fouled 22.8% 23.4%
Turnover 15.4% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 5.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP UCRV
Shot Blocked 2.3% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.6% 33.9%