NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TCU SMU
Points 78.3 73.3
Total Points   151.6
Points From 2-Pointers 41.9 40.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 19.2
Points From Free Throws 16.4 14.0
Shooting TCU SMU
Field Goals Made 27.6 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 60.9
Field Goal % 45.3% 43.4%
2 Pointers Made 21.0 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 43.2 41.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 16.4 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 20.4
Free Throw % 72.7% 68.6%
Ball Control TCU SMU
Rebounds 39.3 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 22.5
Rebounds - Offensive 14.0 12.2
Turnovers 11.7 11.8
Blocked Shots 5.7 5.1
Steals 7.8 7.2
Fouls 13.7 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: TX Christian

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TCU SMU
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 73.1
% of Possessions with TCU SMU
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 20.1% 22.8%
Player Fouled 21.2% 18.9%
Turnover 16.2% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TCU SMU
Shot Blocked 8.7% 9.5%
Offensive Rebound 38.4% 32.6%