NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP CALBA
Points 61.1 68.8
Total Points   129.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.2 34.2
Points From 3-Pointers 14.4 16.9
Points From Free Throws 10.6 17.7
Shooting CP CALBA
Field Goals Made 22.9 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 55.5
Field Goal % 41.8% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.9 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.2% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 13.8 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 10.6 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 14.9 25.4
Free Throw % 70.9% 69.6%
Ball Control CP CALBA
Rebounds 29.7 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 13.6
Turnovers 9.7 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.5
Steals 4.0 3.8
Fouls 16.7 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP CALBA
Total Possessions 67.1
Effective Scoring Chances 63.7 71.3
% of Possessions with CP CALBA
2 Point Attempt 55.0% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 18.6% 20.8%
Player Fouled 21.8% 24.8%
Turnover 14.4% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP CALBA
Shot Blocked 4.5% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 18.4% 36.9%