NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP SJSU
Points 81.5 81.7
Total Points   163.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 32.7 30.7
Points From Free Throws 15.7 14.6
Shooting CP SJSU
Field Goals Made 27.5 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 63.7
Field Goal % 47.6% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 26.1 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 63.5% 48.6%
3 Pointers Made 10.9 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 31.6 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 15.7 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 19.3
Free Throw % 78.2% 75.6%
Ball Control CP SJSU
Rebounds 36.9 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 21.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 12.4
Turnovers 13.3 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.0 1.8
Steals 4.3 6.2
Fouls 14.8 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP SJSU
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 76.1
% of Possessions with CP SJSU
2 Point Attempt 30.6% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 37.1% 30.4%
Player Fouled 22.9% 20.3%
Turnover 18.2% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP SJSU
Shot Blocked 2.8% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 34.6% 32.7%