NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP SJSU
Points 78.2 85.3
Total Points   163.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.4 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 28.2 30.9
Points From Free Throws 10.6 13.4
Shooting CP SJSU
Field Goals Made 29.1 30.8
Field Goals Attempted 64.0 63.8
Field Goal % 45.5% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 57.5% 55.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 29.7 26.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 38.6%
Free Throws Made 10.6 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.0 18.6
Free Throw % 75.7% 72.4%
Ball Control CP SJSU
Rebounds 35.1 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 11.8
Turnovers 13.1 11.1
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.3
Steals 5.7 7.3
Fouls 13.8 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP SJSU
Total Possessions 75.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.1 76.0
% of Possessions with CP SJSU
2 Point Attempt 39.2% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 33.9% 30.3%
Player Fouled 16.7% 18.3%
Turnover 17.4% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP SJSU
Shot Blocked 5.2% 2.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 32.7%