NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP PAC
Points 71.1 65.2
Total Points   136.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 14.6
Points From Free Throws 14.5 16.6
Shooting CP PAC
Field Goals Made 24.8 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 50.8
Field Goal % 44.9% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.2% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 15.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 14.5 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 25.6
Free Throw % 70.9% 65.1%
Ball Control CP PAC
Rebounds 35.9 31.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 7.2
Turnovers 10.4 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.2
Steals 4.8 5.3
Fouls 18.7 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP PAC
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 65.9
% of Possessions with CP PAC
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 19.4%
Player Fouled 22.7% 27.0%
Turnover 15.0% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP PAC
Shot Blocked 4.3% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 21.3%