NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP USD
Points 65.3 72.6
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 30.8 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 17.2
Points From Free Throws 15.5 17.8
Shooting CP USD
Field Goals Made 21.7 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 55.6
Field Goal % 40.2% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 16.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 15.5 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 24.6
Free Throw % 70.9% 72.1%
Ball Control CP USD
Rebounds 32.1 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 11.3
Turnovers 12.9 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 4.0
Steals 5.9 7.2
Fouls 16.3 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP USD
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 71.0
% of Possessions with CP USD
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 19.1%
Player Fouled 24.3% 22.7%
Turnover 18.0% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP USD
Shot Blocked 7.3% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 32.4%