NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU ORST
Points 73.8 68.0
Total Points   141.8
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 38.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 13.8
Points From Free Throws 17.5 15.6
Shooting PSU ORST
Field Goals Made 24.3 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 51.9
Field Goal % 43.7% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 15.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 28.9%
Free Throws Made 17.5 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 21.2
Free Throw % 74.9% 73.5%
Ball Control PSU ORST
Rebounds 31.7 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 8.3
Turnovers 9.8 13.8
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.2
Steals 7.1 5.2
Fouls 17.4 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Oregon St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU ORST
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 65.2
% of Possessions with PSU ORST
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 19.9%
Player Fouled 24.5% 24.7%
Turnover 13.9% 19.5%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU ORST
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 26.6%