NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU PUR
Points 66.6 79.9
Total Points   146.5
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 42.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 17.9
Points From Free Throws 10.5 19.6
Shooting PSU PUR
Field Goals Made 24.3 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.5 54.6
Field Goal % 39.5% 49.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 56.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 24.3 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 10.5 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.0 26.8
Free Throw % 74.9% 73.0%
Ball Control PSU PUR
Rebounds 26.6 44.0
Rebounds - Defensive 18.9 31.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 12.7
Turnovers 8.7 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.8
Steals 7.0 4.9
Fouls 18.7 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU PUR
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 71.8
% of Possessions with PSU PUR
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 20.4%
Player Fouled 17.7% 26.4%
Turnover 12.3% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU PUR
Shot Blocked 5.1% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 40.3%