NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU NEB
Points 73.5 75.4
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 31.6 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 27.8 22.2
Points From Free Throws 14.1 16.4
Shooting PSU NEB
Field Goals Made 25.1 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.1 56.7
Field Goal % 41.0% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 33.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 27.8 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 14.1 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 21.5
Free Throw % 74.9% 76.0%
Ball Control PSU NEB
Rebounds 34.3 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.2
Turnovers 9.9 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.0
Steals 7.1 5.3
Fouls 15.3 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU NEB
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 69.8
% of Possessions with PSU NEB
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 33.2% 28.0%
Player Fouled 19.4% 21.0%
Turnover 13.6% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU NEB
Shot Blocked 3.7% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 27.4%