NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU ILL
Points 73.9 83.7
Total Points   157.6
Points From 2-Pointers 39.8 44.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 19.3
Points From Free Throws 14.3 20.1
Shooting PSU ILL
Field Goals Made 26.5 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 62.4 58.4
Field Goal % 42.5% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 22.1
2 Pointers Attempted 43.5 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.8% 58.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 14.3 20.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 27.2
Free Throw % 74.9% 73.9%
Ball Control PSU ILL
Rebounds 29.6 42.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.2 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 12.8
Turnovers 7.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.0
Steals 5.8 4.0
Fouls 17.5 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU ILL
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 75.4
% of Possessions with PSU ILL
2 Point Attempt 52.7% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 23.6%
Player Fouled 19.3% 23.9%
Turnover 10.8% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU ILL
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 37.6%