NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU ILL
Points 74.2 83.9
Total Points   158.0
Points From 2-Pointers 40.4 44.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 19.2
Points From Free Throws 14.1 20.2
Shooting PSU ILL
Field Goals Made 26.7 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 62.8 58.3
Field Goal % 42.6% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 43.8 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 58.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 14.1 20.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 26.9
Free Throw % 74.9% 74.9%
Ball Control PSU ILL
Rebounds 29.5 42.6
Rebounds - Defensive 20.9 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 12.7
Turnovers 7.8 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.0
Steals 5.7 3.9
Fouls 17.3 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU ILL
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 73.8 75.2
% of Possessions with PSU ILL
2 Point Attempt 52.9% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 23.4%
Player Fouled 19.1% 23.7%
Turnover 10.7% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 5.3% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU ILL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 37.8%